Grand Martingale in baccarat: adding one unit per step costs 120 units over 6 steps

2026-10-05

The plain Martingale doubles after a loss and keeps only the first unit when it wins. The Grand Martingale adds one more unit to each step so a win leaves more. Using the 8-deck odds of Evolution live baccarat at the Stake (stake.com) casino, we calculated both systems side by side for Player bets up to 6 steps.

Bet table

Step   Martingale   Grand Martingale   Grand win
1          1              1               +1
2          2              3               +2
3          4              7               +3
4          8             15               +4
5         16             31               +5
6         32             63               +6
Total     63            120

The Grand Martingale raises to "previous bet x 2 + 1". Whatever the step, a plain Martingale win leaves +1, while a Grand Martingale win leaves as many units as the step number. In exchange, surviving all 6 steps needs 120 units instead of 63, almost twice as much.

The chance of collapse is the same

Six losses in a row happen at the same rate whatever the system. With ties removed, Player loses six in a row 1.69% of the time, about once every 59 cycles. What differs is the loss: 63 units for the plain Martingale, 120 for the Grand. How often each losing run comes is in baccarat martingale odds.

Average per cycle

                     Martingale    Grand Martingale
Average wagered      6.21 units    10.42 units
Average result      -0.085 units   -0.142 units
Per unit wagered     -1.37%        -1.37%

A bigger win also means more money wagered every cycle. Loss per unit wagered is exactly -1.37% for both (Player, ties removed). However you arrange the amounts, the disadvantage per hand does not change, and the more you wager, the larger the average loss. To fit the steps to your bankroll, try the baccarat martingale calculator.

Summary

Bet rule             previous bet x 2 + 1
Needed for 6 steps   Grand 120 · plain 63 units
Six losses in a row  1.69% (ties removed, about once in 59 cycles)
Average per cycle    Grand -0.142 · plain -0.085 units
Per unit wagered     both -1.37%

Hiddenpick is a Windows program that runs Evolution live baccarat on Stake (stake.com) for you, following the rules you set. The opposite approach, raising after a win, is covered in the Paroli system.