The Paroli baccarat system: doubling after a win, and its limits

2026-09-28

If the martingale raises the bet after a loss, the Paroli raises it after a win. You let the winnings ride and bet double once more. Here is how it works and where it stops, worked out for Evolution live baccarat at the Stake (stake.com) casino.

How it goes

Bet 1 on the first hand. If you win, add the 1 you won and bet 2. If you chose one press, you go back to 1 after that hand, win or lose. With two presses you go 1, 2, 4, and after winning all three you bank it and start over. On a losing hand you only lose the first 1.

How often the streaks come

With ties left out, the banker wins 50.68% of the time in clean shoes. Two wins in a row come 25.7% of the time, three 13.0% and four 6.6%. One press runs to the end about once in four tries, two presses about once in eight.

Pressing does not move the average

Take one press on banker. Winning both hands earns about 2.8 after commission, and every other outcome loses 1. Divide by the total amount bet and the average is -1.15% per bet, the same as plain banker betting. Paroli does not change the expected value, only the shape the results come in.

How it differs from the martingale

The martingale wins small often and loses big rarely. Paroli loses small often and wins big rarely. Because a single loss is capped at the first bet, it is easier to hold out on a small bankroll. On days the streaks do not come, it keeps shrinking bit by bit.

Summary

How it works       let winnings ride, a loss costs only the first bet
Streak odds        2 wins 25.7%, 3 wins 13.0%, 4 wins 6.6%
Average            -1.15% per bet (same as banker)
Versus martingale  smaller losses, winning days are rarer

Hiddenpick is a Windows program that runs Evolution live baccarat on Stake (stake.com) for you, following the rules you set. The martingale side of the comparison is in the martingale calculator.