A tie in the middle of a baccarat martingale? Stay on the same step, the cycle runs 0.2 hands longer

2026-10-06

Bet Player or Banker with a martingale and roughly one hand in ten ends in a tie. Many players are unsure whether that should move them up a step. We sorted it out with the rules and 8-deck odds of Evolution live baccarat at the Stake (stake.com) casino.

What happens to the bet on a tie

If you bet Banker or Player and the hand ties, your stake is returned. It is neither a win nor a loss, so the martingale step stays where it is and you bet the same amount again. Treating a tie as a loss and moving up only raises the bankroll you need, with nothing gained.

Tie chance (per hand)   9.52%
After a tie             same step, same amount

How much longer a cycle gets

Using a 6-step Player martingale (1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, 63 units in total), we counted one cycle as running until a win or six straight losses.

Item                              Value
Hands per cycle, ties removed     1.99
Hands per cycle, ties included    2.20
Ties per cycle                    0.21 on average
Lose all six (ties removed)       1.69%

A tie only stretches the cycle by about 0.2 hands on average; it does not change the chance of losing all six. When a tie lands on a high step, though, a large stake stays on the table for one more hand and your money is tied up longer.

Betting the tie as well

Some players add a tie bet as a kind of insurance, but the tie carries a 14.36% house edge, more than ten times Banker's. Adding it at every step raises the cost by that much. Step amounts and bankroll can be fitted in the baccarat martingale calculator, and how often ties really appear is in how often baccarat ties.

Summary

On a tie          Banker and Player bets returned, step unchanged
Tie chance        9.52%
6-step cycle      2.20 hands on average (1.99 without ties)
Lose six          1.69% (ties removed, Player)
Tie bet           house edge 14.36%
Method            8-deck theoretical odds

Hiddenpick is a Windows program that runs Evolution live baccarat on Stake (stake.com) for you, following the rules you set. How often losing streaks come is covered in martingale odds in baccarat.