Baccarat take profit and stop loss: which ratio? The chance of hitting each first

2026-10-05

Whether you use an automated program or play by hand, you usually set a take profit and a stop loss before starting. A small target with a wide stop means you smile often and sometimes lose big. The reverse means you lose often and sometimes win big. Using the 8-deck odds of Evolution live baccarat at the Stake (stake.com) casino and flat 1-unit Player bets, we calculated which side you reach first for each ratio.

Results by ratio

Target  Stop  Target first  Fair game  Avg hands  Avg result
  5      50     83.6%        90.9%      326      -4.0 units
 10      50     70.3%        83.3%      631      -7.8 units
 10      20     57.3%        66.7%      228      -2.8 units
 10      10     43.2%        50.0%      110      -1.4 units
 20      20     36.7%        50.0%      431      -5.3 units
 20      10     24.8%        33.3%      208      -2.6 units

The "fair game" column is the value if winning and losing were equally likely. In every row the real chance is lower. That is the 1.37% disadvantage per decided hand (ties removed) adding up.

A small target

With a target of 5 and a stop of 50, more than eight sessions in ten end at the target. It feels good, but the average session result is -4.0 units, because the 16% that hit the stop lose 50 units at once. The longer a session runs, the more the disadvantage piles up and the bigger the average loss.

Shorter sessions lose less

The smallest average loss in the table comes when the two limits are close, like target 10 and stop 10. Short sessions give the disadvantage less time to build. When you pick a ratio, look at the average number of hands as well as the chance of hitting the target. How a program keeps stop conditions is covered in our baccarat bot guide.

Summary

Target 5 · stop 50    target first 83.6%, average -4.0 units
Target 10 · stop 10   target first 43.2%, average -1.4 units
Target 20 · stop 10   target first 24.8%, average -2.6 units
In every case         about 7 to 13 points below a fair game
Method                8-deck theoretical odds, flat 1-unit Player bets

Hiddenpick is a Windows program that runs Evolution live baccarat on Stake (stake.com) for you, following the rules you set. The calculation for a distant target, such as doubling your bankroll, is in baccarat risk of ruin.