Banker Martingale in baccarat: why winning at step 6 still leaves you at -0.6

2026-10-04

Banker wins slightly more often than Player, but a Banker win pays only 95% of the bet. Evolution live baccarat at the Stake (stake.com) casino uses the same rule. That 5% looks small on one hand, but in a Martingale that doubles the bet, it grows with every step. We calculated what a Banker Martingale really returns at each step.

Doubling the bet

Start at 1 unit, double after each loss, go back to step 1 after a win.

Step   Bet   Real result if it wins
1        1        +0.95
2        2        +0.90
3        4        +0.80
4        8        +0.60
5       16        +0.20
6       32        -0.60
7       64        -2.20
8      128        -5.40

Up to step 5 the profit from a win keeps shrinking, and from step 6 a win is still a loss. The 1.6-unit commission on a 32-unit win is larger than the 1 unit that would be left after covering the 31 units already lost.

Bets adjusted for commission

To finish +1 unit after every win, each step must be "losses so far + 1" divided by 0.95.

Step   Bet      Total
1       1.05     1.05
2       2.16     3.21
3       4.44     7.65
4       9.10    16.75
5      18.69    35.44
6      38.36    73.79

Six steps need 73.8 units instead of 63, 17% more. Eight steps need 314 units instead of 255. With the same bankroll, a Banker Martingale can survive fewer steps.

Is Banker still better?

Per hand, Banker is slightly better: -1.06% against -1.24% for Player. But six Banker losses in a row (ties excluded) still happen 1.44% of the time, and because every step is bigger, one collapse costs more. To fit the steps to your bankroll, try the baccarat martingale calculator.

Summary

Doubling, win at step 6       -0.6 units (commission 1.6 > profit 1)
Commission-adjusted 6 steps   73.8 units (plain 63)
8 steps                       314 units (plain 255)
Six Banker losses in a row    1.44% (ties excluded)
Method                        8-deck theoretical odds, 5% commission

Hiddenpick is a Windows program that runs Evolution live baccarat on Stake (stake.com) for you, following the rules you set. How no-commission tables differ is compared in no-commission baccarat.