Baccarat Labouchere system: it succeeds nine times out of ten, so why is it negative?

2026-10-04

Labouchere is a betting system where you write a line of numbers and cross them off. It is also called the cancellation system. Bets do not double like Martingale, so it looks safer. Using the 8-deck odds of Evolution live baccarat at the Stake (stake.com) casino and Player bets, we ran a 1-2-3 starting line 200,000 times.

The rules

Line           1 2 3  (clear it for +6 units)
Bet            first + last = 4
Win            cross off both ends -> 2
Loss           add the lost amount -> 1 2 3 4
Tie            nothing changes

When the line is cleared you are ahead by the sum of the starting numbers. A win removes two numbers and a loss adds only one, so the line can finish even if you win a bit less than half the time. That is why it looks attractive.

The success rate is high

We counted a cycle as failed when the bankroll could not cover the next bet.

Bankroll 50 units     success 86.5%  fail 13.5%
Bankroll 100 units    success 92.6%  fail  7.4%
Bankroll 200 units    success 96.1%  fail  3.9%
Bankroll 500 units    success 98.3%  fail  1.7%

With 100 units a cycle takes 6.7 hands on average, and in half the cycles the largest bet stays at 6 units or less. Most of the time it quietly collects +6 units.

The size of one failure

The trouble is the failure. A run of losses makes the line longer and the end numbers bigger. With 100 units, a failed cycle loses 84.6 units on average, giving back what about twelve successes earned. Combining both, the average result per cycle is:

Bankroll 50 units     -0.47 units
Bankroll 100 units    -0.68 units
Bankroll 200 units    -0.87 units
Bankroll 500 units    -1.31 units

A bigger bankroll raises the success rate, but it also survives longer lines and loses more when it finally breaks, so the average gets worse. Crossing off numbers only moves the loss later; the disadvantage of every hand stays. To see step amounts in advance, compare them in the baccarat martingale calculator.

Summary

Rule              bet the sum of both ends, cross off on a win, add on a loss
Success rate      92.6% with 100 units (98.3% with 500)
One failure       -84.6 units on average with 100 units
Average per cycle -0.47 to -1.31 units
Method            200,000 runs with 8-deck theoretical odds, Player bets

Hiddenpick is a Windows program that runs Evolution live baccarat on Stake (stake.com) for you, following the rules you set. Other progressions are compared in D'Alembert and Fibonacci versus Martingale.