Baccarat risk of ruin: the chance of going broke before you double with flat bets

2026-10-03

What happens if you never raise your bet like Martingale does, and simply bet the same amount every hand? Nothing collapses all at once, but a small disadvantage builds up hand after hand. Using the 8-deck rules of Evolution live baccarat at the Stake (stake.com) casino and flat Player bets, we calculated the chance of running out before doubling your bankroll. This is the classic gambler's ruin problem.

The bigger the bankroll, the harder it is to double

The result depends heavily on how many betting units you start with.

10 units     double 43.2%   broke 56.8%
20 units     double 36.7%   broke 63.3%
50 units     double 20.3%   broke 79.7%
100 units    double  6.1%   broke 93.9%
200 units    double  0.4%   broke 99.6%

In a perfectly even game every row would be 50%. The 1.24% disadvantage per bet adds up as the number of hands grows, so the farther away the target, the more certainly the walk tips toward zero.

How many hands it takes

We also calculated the average number of hands until one side is reached, ties included. With 10 units it is 110 hands, with 50 units 2,401 hands and with 100 units 7,105 hands. Splitting your money into smaller units lets you last longer, but you also play many more hands at a disadvantage.

What the numbers say

Betting small for a long time only reduces the swings. It does not change the direction of the result. If the target is as far away as doubling your bankroll, the disadvantage wins along the way. Setting a close target and stopping when you reach it is the approach that fits this calculation.

Summary

Chance to double first   10 units 43.2% · 50 units 20.3% · 100 units 6.1%
Average hands            10 units 110 · 50 units 2,401 · 100 units 7,105
Even game                always 50%
Method                   8-deck theory, flat Player bets

Hiddenpick is a Windows program that runs Evolution live baccarat on Stake (stake.com) for you, following the rules you set. To compare with raising your bets, try the step amounts in the baccarat martingale calculator.