Sizing baccarat bets with the Kelly criterion? For Banker, Player and Tie the answer is 0

2026-10-05

The Kelly criterion tells you what share of your bankroll to bet so it grows fastest, when you know the chance of winning and the payout. It is common in stock and sports betting, so many people try it on baccarat too. We plugged in the 8-deck odds of Evolution live baccarat at the Stake (stake.com) casino.

The formula

Share to bet = chance to win - (chance to lose / payout)

The payout is the net profit per 1 unit bet when you win: 1 for Player, 0.95 for Banker after commission, and 8 for Tie. On a tie, Player and Banker bets are returned, so for those two we use the odds with ties removed.

Baccarat in the formula

Bet      Chance to win   Payout   Kelly share
Banker      50.68%        0.95      -1.23%
Player      49.32%        1         -1.36%
Tie          9.52%        8         -1.79%

All three are negative. In the Kelly formula a negative result means "do not bet": the share to bet is 0. Splitting your bankroll into smaller pieces does not change that. For Banker to break even, its win rate with ties removed would have to reach 51.28%; real clean-shoe records show 50.68%, the same as the calculation.

When Kelly is useful

The formula only means something when a bet has a positive edge. For example, at even money with a 51% chance it says 2% of your bankroll, and at 52.5% it says 5%. No method has been confirmed to give an edge like that in baccarat consistently. In practice it is more realistic to decide how much you can afford to lose and pick a bet size within that. Step amounts can be fitted to your bankroll in the baccarat martingale calculator.

Summary

Kelly share         Banker -1.23% · Player -1.36% · Tie -1.79%
Conclusion          bet 0 on all three
Banker break-even   51.28% (real 50.68%, ties removed)
For reference       51% bet -> 2%, 52.5% -> 5%
Method              8-deck theoretical odds

Hiddenpick is a Windows program that runs Evolution live baccarat on Stake (stake.com) for you, following the rules you set. How many pieces to split your bankroll into is covered in how many pieces to split your bankroll into.