Which baccarat total wins most often? A 9 takes 24% of hands

2026-10-02

In baccarat the side closer to 9 wins. So are most winning hands a 9, or do 5s and 6s win a lot too? We took the 8-deck rules used in Evolution live baccarat at the Stake (stake.com) casino and worked through every possible hand from 416 cards to see which totals actually win.

Winning totals, ranked

Out of all hands, here is the total the winning side had. Ties, 9.5% of hands, are left out.

Won with 9     24.0%
Won with 8     21.7%
Won with 7     15.9%
Won with 6     11.6%
Won with 5-    17.3%

Wins with an 8 or 9 make up just under half of all hands. Yet close to one hand in five is won with 5 or less. If the other side is lower, a 4 is enough.

Player wins with 6 and 7, Banker with 4 and 5

Split by side, the shapes differ. Player wins with a 6 in 6.3% of hands, Banker in 5.4%. For a winning 5 it flips: Banker 4.3%, Player 2.5%.

The third card rule explains it. Player stands on 6 or 7, so 6 and 7 wins pile up on the Player side. Banker acts after seeing the Player's third card, so it more often stands on a low total and still wins because the Player ended even lower.

Which ties are common

Ties at 7 against 7 (2.0%) and 6 against 6 (1.9%) are the most frequent, because both sides tend to stop on 6 and 7. A tie at zero happens 0.6% of the time.

Does the total tell you the next hand

The cards of that hand decide the total. An 8-deck shoe uses only four to six cards per hand, so the previous total has almost no effect on the next one. In the clean shoes we collected, Banker won 50.68% of non-tie hands, the same as theory.

Summary

Win with 9: 24.0% · 8: 21.7% · 7: 15.9% · 6: 11.6%
Win with 5 or less: 17.3% · Tie: 9.5%
Player wins more with 6-7, Banker more with 4-5
Method: 8 decks, 416 cards, every hand under the third card rule

Hiddenpick is a Windows program that runs Evolution live baccarat on Stake (stake.com) for you, following the rules you set. Whether totals or road patterns can predict the next hand is covered in the truth about baccarat prediction software.