The 1-3-2-6 baccarat system: four straight wins come once in 17 cycles

2026-10-03

1-3-2-6 is a system that raises the bet only after a win. You bet 1, then 3 after a win, then 2, then 6, and go back to 1 after any loss or after completing all four. Using the 8-deck rules of Evolution live baccarat at the Stake (stake.com) casino and assuming Player bets, we split one cycle into its possible endings. Ties return the stake, so they are left out.

Five ways a cycle ends

Lose the 1st bet      50.7%   -1
Lose the 2nd bet      25.0%   -2
Lose the 3rd bet      12.3%   +2
Lose the 4th bet       6.1%    0
Win all four           5.9%   +12

Half of all cycles end on the first bet with a loss of 1. The two most common outcomes are both losses.

The big payout comes once in 17 cycles

The +12 needs four wins in a row. That happens 5.9% of the time, roughly once every 17 cycles. Over 20 cycles the chance of seeing it at least once is 70.5%, so about three times in ten you go 20 cycles without it.

The expected value does not move

The average result per cycle is -0.05 units, on an average of 3.69 units wagered. The loss as a share of money wagered is the same as flat betting the same amount every hand, because changing the order of bets does not change the odds of any hand. What 1-3-2-6 changes is the shape of the results: frequent small losses and occasional big wins.

The mirror image of Martingale

Martingale raises after a loss, which gives frequent small wins and occasional big losses. 1-3-2-6 raises after a win, so it is the reverse. One clear difference is that the largest bet is capped at 6 units, so there is no ladder to collapse.

Summary

Outcomes        -1 50.7% · -2 25.0% · +2 12.3% · 0 6.1% · +12 5.9%
Four wins       about once every 17 cycles
Per cycle       -0.05 units (3.69 units wagered on average)
Loss rate       same as flat betting, largest bet 6 units
Method          8-deck theory, Player bets, ties excluded

Hiddenpick is a Windows program that runs Evolution live baccarat on Stake (stake.com) for you, following the rules you set. You can check the amount at every step in the baccarat martingale calculator.