Baccarat martingale: at which step does the table maximum stop you?

2026-10-01

A martingale doubles after each loss so that one win recovers everything before it. That is why people usually only ask how long their bankroll lasts. But live tables such as Evolution live baccarat at the Stake (stake.com) casino have a maximum bet. Even with money left, the sequence stops once the table refuses a bigger amount.

Steps are set by a ratio

A martingale goes 1, 2, 4, 8 times the first bet. At step n the bet is 2 to the power of (n minus 1) times the first bet. So what matters is not the dollar amount but the table maximum divided by your first bet.

Max ÷ first bet   Last step   Bet at that step   Bankroll needed
100x              step 7      64x                127x
500x              step 9      256x               511x
1,000x            step 10     512x               1,023x
5,000x            step 13     4,096x             8,191x

For example, with a 1 dollar first bet at a table with a 1,000 dollar maximum, you can go as far as step 10 at 512 dollars. Step 11 at 1,024 dollars is not accepted.

How often every step loses

Assume banker only, using the banker share from our clean collected shoes, 50.68% with ties left out. One bet then loses 49.32% of the time.

Lose 7 in a row     about 1 in 141
Lose 9 in a row     about 1 in 579
Lose 10 in a row    about 1 in 1,174
Lose 13 in a row    about 1 in 9,788

Here one means one full martingale cycle. Run dozens of cycles a day and 1 in 1,000 is not far away.

Lowering the first bet

At the same table, halving the first bet doubles the ratio and adds one step. It also halves what one winning cycle brings in. How often long losing runs really show up is covered in our martingale odds post.

Summary

Steps        set by table max ÷ first bet
1,000x       up to step 10, bankroll 1,023x
Frequency    all 10 steps lose about once in 1,174 cycles (banker)
Check        each table's min and max before sitting down

Hiddenpick is a Windows program that runs Evolution live baccarat on Stake (stake.com) for you, following the rules you set. You can see how many steps your first bet and bankroll allow in the martingale calculator.