Evolution baccarat side bets: what does a pair bet really cost?

2026-10-01

The Evolution live baccarat screen at the Stake (stake.com) casino has more than the player, banker and tie spots. The small boxes you see most often are Player Pair and Banker Pair. The 11 to 1 payout catches the eye, so we calculated how often a pair actually lands and how much each bet costs on average.

What wins a pair bet

It wins when the first two cards on that side are the same rank. Seven and seven, king and king. A 10 and a king are both worth zero points, but they are not a pair. The third card does not count, and the main result does not matter either: banker can lose while Banker Pair still wins.

The odds with 8 decks

There are 8 decks, 416 cards. Whatever the first card is, 31 of the remaining 415 cards match its rank. So the chance is 31/415, about 7.47%, or roughly one hand in thirteen. Player Pair and Banker Pair are settled separately, and each has this chance.

Expected value

A win pays 11 times the stake and returns the stake. For a 1 dollar bet:

Win     7.47%  × +11 dollars
Lose   92.53%  ×  -1 dollar
Average          -0.1036 dollars

Each bet loses 10.36% on average.

Next to the main bets

These come from working through every possible hand in the same 8-deck shoe.

Banker (5% commission)   -1.06%
Player                   -1.24%
Tie (8 to 1)            -14.36%
Pair (11 to 1)          -10.36%

A pair bet drains about ten times faster than banker. Our collected data records results only, not the cards themselves, so these are values calculated from the rules, not counted from real shoes. Because the rules are fixed, millions of hands settle close to them.

Summary

Pair          first two cards of one side share a rank (10 and K do not)
Chance        31/415 = 7.47%
Payout        11 to 1
Expected      -10.36% (banker -1.06%, tie -14.36%)

Hiddenpick is a Windows program that runs Evolution live baccarat on Stake (stake.com) for you, following the rules you set. Every spot on the table has fixed odds and a fixed payout, and that does not change. More on odds in the reality of baccarat prediction software.