Does banker win more at dawn? 610,000 baccarat hands sorted by hour

2026-09-30

You hear it often: "banker runs at dawn", "evenings are choppy". Time is something anyone can record, so it is easy to check. We sorted shoes collected from Evolution live baccarat at the Stake (stake.com) casino by the hour they were dealt (Korea time, UTC+9).

The data

Shoes collected from 9 to 28 September 2026, keeping only the 10,405 clean shoes with evenly recorded hands. Leaving out the first two hands of each shoe and all ties gives 610,535 hands. Banker won 50.62% of them, almost exactly the 8-deck theory of 50.68%.

Hour by hour

Each hourly slot holds 20,000 to 40,000 hands (only 1 to 3 pm drop to about 10,000).

Highest slot     7 am    51.22%
Lowest slot      3 pm    49.70%
Other 22 slots   50.1% to 51.0%

A gap of more than one point looks large, but with 20,000 to 30,000 hands a slot, chance alone moves the share by 0.5 to 0.9 points either way. Two of the 24 slots fell outside that band, and one or two outside is what chance alone produces.

Three-hour blocks

00-03  50.61%   03-06  50.37%
06-09  50.93%   09-12  50.87%
12-15  50.62%   15-18  50.41%
18-21  50.50%   21-24  50.64%

Grouped together the gaps shrink further. The dawn block (3 to 6 am) was actually one of the lowest.

Too early to judge weekdays

By weekday, Monday shows 50.13% and Sunday 51.07%. But the data covers less than three weeks, so each weekday is only two or three days. Gaps of that size come easily from a day or two of data.

How to read it

In a game dealt from eight shuffled decks, the clock has no reason to change the outcome, and the numbers agree. Pick your hours by practical things instead: how busy the tables are and when you can keep an eye on them.

Summary

Data              10,405 clean shoes, 610,535 hands
Banker overall    50.62% (theory 50.68%)
Hourly range      49.70% to 51.22%, within chance
Three-hour range  50.37% to 50.93%

Hiddenpick is a Windows program that runs Evolution live baccarat on Stake (stake.com) for you, following the rules you set. What shoe records can and cannot tell you is covered in the reality of baccarat prediction software.