Baccarat rules compared, playing the third card table as written vs an assumed rule where the Banker draws like the Player, and the hands behind a 1.24-point gap
2026-11-04
1.24 percentage points. Count every possible deal of 8 decks, 416 cards, by the third card table in the baccarat rules, and the Banker wins that many more hands than the Player.
Search for baccarat rules and the results mix videos that drill the drawing order with videos promising a way to win. In this post the rules mean one table printed in the rule sheet. We measure how much that table moves the odds by setting it beside a rule without it.
1.The two tables in the baccarat rules
The Evolution baccarat rules say the game uses eight standard 52-card decks, 416 cards in all. Aces count 1, 2 to 9 count their face value, 10, J, Q and K count 0, and only the last digit of the total matters (Evolution baccarat rules, Loto-Québec copy).
If either first two-card hand is worth 8 or 9, that is a natural and neither side draws. Otherwise the Player moves first.
- Player 0-5: draws one more card
- Player 6-7: stands
- Banker, Player stood: draws on 0-5, stands on 6-7
- Banker, Player drew: decided by the Banker total and the Player's third card
The last line is the separate table. Banker 0-2 always draws and 7 always stands. Banker 3 stands only when the Player's third card is 8, 4 draws on 2-7, 5 draws on 4-7, and 6 draws only on 6-7.
Third card table: cells that decide if the Banker draws after a Player third card. No one chooses.
2.The table as written vs an assumed rule
We walked every path the cards can take: Player first card, Banker first card, Player second, Banker second, then the third cards. Each draw multiplies by the share of cards still left, and the table decides whether to stop or draw again. Added up as exact fractions, the paths come to exactly 1.
By the table, Banker wins 45.86%, Player 44.62% and Tie 9.52%. With ties taken out it is 50.68 to 49.32.
For comparison we changed one rule and ran the same count again. In it the Banker ignores the Player's third card, drawing on 0-5 and standing on 6-7. No table plays this way, so it is an assumed rule made only for this post.
Under the assumed rule, Banker and Player both win 45.31%. Same decks, same rule, so there is nothing to split them. Ties drop slightly to 9.38%.
Five ways a hand ends
To see where the gap comes from, we sorted the hands played by the table into five shapes.
- Natural: 34.30%, Banker and Player each win 47.40%
- Both stand: 3.58%, about half (49.89%) are ties
- P stands, B draws: 11.77%, Player wins 73.10%
- P draws, B stands: 18.57%, Banker wins 72.26%
- Both draw: 31.77%, Banker 40.99% and Player 48.71%
The first two shapes are even and add nothing to the gap. The gap comes from the three shapes where third cards change hands.
When the Player draws and the Banker stands, the Banker comes out 10.03 points ahead, counted over all hands. In the mirror shape the Player is 6.34 points ahead, and when both draw the Player is 2.45 points ahead.
Net them out and 1.24 points are left on the Banker side. The Player actually wins more of the hands where both draw, but the hands where the Banker stands lean further the other way.
Under the assumed rule, Player draws and Banker stands is 11.77%, the same size as its mirror. By the table it grows to 18.57%, up 6.80 points. Hands that run to six cards fall from 38.57% under the assumed rule to 31.77% by the table.
3.Adding the payouts
The rules list the Banker payout as 0.95:1 with a 5% commission. Player pays 1:1 and Tie 8:1.
By the table, the average result per unit bet is -1.06% on Banker, -1.24% on Player and -14.36% on Tie. The 98.94% RTP the rules print for the Banker bet matches 100% minus 1.06%.
The same payouts on the assumed rule give 0.00% on Player, -2.27% on Banker and -15.60% on Tie. The share the table adds to the Banker and the 5% commission together are what produce today's -1.06%.
The Player's 0.00% comes from a rule that does not exist. At real tables all three bets are negative.
4.What memorizing the table does not change
The table is the order the dealer follows. It explains why some hands show five or six cards, but it says nothing about which shape the next hand will take.
In 54,628 clean shoes we actually collected (started September 9 to October 21, 2026), the Banker won 50.68% of hands with ties taken out, the same as the count. The table runs as written, and its effect only shows up as a long-run average.
If baccarat rules are read as a way to call the next hand, no such cell exists in this table.
5.Three-line summary
Three-line summary
- Counting every 8-deck deal by the rule table gives Banker 45.86%, Player 44.62% and Tie 9.52%
- If the Banker also drew on 0-5, both would win 45.31%, so the 1.24 points come from the table
- The gap is largest in the 18.57% of hands where the Player draws and the Banker stands, and with payouts all three bets are negative
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