Baccarat betting systems: how D'Alembert and Fibonacci differ from martingale

2026-09-30

Players who find martingale too steep often look at D'Alembert and Fibonacci. Like martingale, both raise the bet after a loss. What differs is how fast. We ran all four on the same real shoes from Evolution live baccarat at the Stake (stake.com) casino.

How each one moves

Flat          always 1
Martingale 6  double after a loss: 1 2 4 8 16 32, back to 1 after six losses
D'Alembert    +1 after a loss, -1 after a win (never below 1)
Fibonacci     one step up the sequence after a loss: 1 1 2 3 5 8 13 ...,
              two steps back after a win

D'Alembert undoes one loss with one win, so the stake moves slowly. Fibonacci starts slowly but, on a long losing run, grows almost as fast as martingale.

Run on the same shoes

Across 10,405 clean shoes, each shoe started fresh at 1 and bet banker on every hand except ties.

              Wagered/shoe   Shoes in profit   Worst shoe   Result vs wagered
Flat              59             45.8%             -32          -1.29%
Martingale 6     171             65.0%            -239          -1.04%
D'Alembert       258             63.9%            -490          -1.22%
Fibonacci        181             80.3%          -7,034          -1.31%

Fibonacci was capped at 610 (the 15th number), yet one shoe with a long losing run still reached -7,034.

What the table says

The last column is around -1% for all four. Banker commission applies to every system alike, and moving the stake around does not change that rate. What changes is the shape. Fibonacci wins the most shoes but also has the biggest worst shoe. D'Alembert simply puts more money in play, so the same rate costs more in total.

How to choose

Not "which one wins" but "which shape can my bankroll survive". Look at the worst-shoe column first and keep only the systems whose number you could absorb.

Summary

All four           about -1.0% to -1.3% of money wagered
Shoes in profit    Fibonacci > martingale ≈ D'Alembert > flat
Worst shoe         Fibonacci > D'Alembert > martingale > flat

Hiddenpick is a Windows program that runs Evolution live baccarat on Stake (stake.com) for you, following the rules you set. The amount needed at each step can be checked in the martingale calculator.