Crypto trading bot review numbers, and what simply holding Bitcoin returned over the same dates

2026-10-27

If a crypto trading bot review says "up 30% this month", how much did Bitcoin itself move that month? Without that one number next to it, the review's return cannot be read.

Among the top five YouTube results for this search in Korean, one member review put a 30% monthly return right in its title. Nobody outside can tell whether a review is true. What we can do is calculate what the market handed out over the same dates and use it as a baseline.

1.Why a review needs a baseline

A trading bot places orders for you. It does not change which way the market goes. In a month when a coin rises 20%, almost any buying rule shows a profit, and in a month when it falls 20%, the opposite.

Baseline: the return from buying the same coin on the first day and just holding it until the last day.

Subtract this from the review's return and what is left is the part the bot did. We calculated it from daily closes of Bitcoin on the Upbit KRW market, where each daily candle starts at 9 a.m. Korea time (Upbit day candle API docs).

2.What Bitcoin returned over the past year

Start with the long window. The close on October 24, 2025 was 165,703,000 won, and on October 24, 2026 it was 108,517,000 won. Just holding would have lost 34.51% over the year (calculated).

With the same end date and different lengths:

• 30 days: -5.74%
• 90 days: +14.15%
• 180 days: -5.91%
• 1 year: -34.51%

A 90-day review and a one-year review written on the same day face opposite baselines. If a review gives no dates, there is no way to pick which row to compare it with.

Monthly figures show the swings more clearly. From November 2025 to September 2026, Bitcoin rose in 5 of 11 months. The best month was August 2026 at +19.86% and the worst was June 2026 at -17.66%.

Even within a month the result depends on the start date. We moved the end date one day at a time over the past year and calculated 366 windows of 30 days.

• +30% or more: 0
• +10% or more: 55
• Negative: 195
• Best window: 30 days from August 4, 2026, +21.53%

Over the past year, holding Bitcoin never gained 30% in any 30-day window. So a "30% a month" review from this period claims far more than the market gave. Ask first whether leverage or a different coin was involved.

Compounding makes the size clearer. Thirty percent a month for twelve months turns the starting amount into about 23.3 times itself (calculated). A one-month review and a one-year track record are very different things.

Here is how the same number reads differently by month. Assume a review reports a 12% gain for one month.

• If it was August 2026: 7.86 points below holding at +19.86%
• If it was June 2026: 29.66 points above holding at -17.66%

The same 12% trailed the market in August and beat it by a wide margin in June (assumed figure).

3.Dates and numbers to look for in a review

To set a baseline, a review needs to state a few things.

• Start and end dates: needed to choose a row in the table above
• Which coin: Bitcoin, or an altcoin that moves more
• Leverage: futures multiply both gains and losses
• Worst drop: Bitcoin fell 47.43% from its high to its low over the past year

!A review with a return and no dates cannot be compared with any baseline. Holding off on judging it is the sound choice.

Also check whether fees were taken out. How fees pile up with the number of trades is worked out in our crypto auto trading downsides post.

4.FAQ

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