How much capital for how many martingale steps?

2026-09-24

Before using any method that raises the bet after a loss, three things need deciding: how much capital you have, how big the first bet is, and how many steps you will last. These cannot be chosen separately. Fix one and the others follow.

Money needed per step

In a doubling martingale, the total needed to last to each step, with a first bet of 1.

In a doubling martingale, each extra step needs a little more than twice the money. Five steps need 31 times the first bet, six steps 63 times, seven steps 127 times, ten steps 1,023 times.

Working back from capital

Start from capital instead and you get the number of steps you can survive. With a first bet of 10:

Capital       Steps you can last
310           5
630           6
1,270         7
2,550         8
5,110         9
10,230        10

Doubling your capital buys you exactly one more step. That is the most important property of a martingale: to last one step longer, your capital has to double.

Halving the first bet

The other way to add steps with the same capital is a smaller first bet. With 630, dropping the first bet from 10 to 5 turns six steps into seven. But what you win each time is halved too. Number of steps and money per win trade against each other.

What the number of steps decides

More steps make busts rarer but each bust bigger. Fewer steps make busts more frequent but each one smaller. Run it on real shoes and, over time, either choice ends up in much the same place. The number of steps does not decide whether you win or lose; it decides how often and how badly you lose. The actual bust counts by step are written up separately.

Table limits too

Every table has a minimum and a maximum bet. If your first bet is below the table minimum you cannot join, and if the last step is above the table maximum you cannot place it. Once you have chosen capital and steps, check that the amounts fit the tables you play.

Think in days, not shoes

It is easy to size capital for a single bust. In practice you play many shoes a day, and two or three busts can land in the same day. So it is safer to size capital not as money to survive one full ladder, but as money that still lets you start the next day after busts pile up.

Summary

Money needed      a little over double per extra step
Double capital    one more step
Half first bet    one more step, but half the win
Steps decide      how often and how big the busts are

Hiddenpick is a Windows program that runs Evolution live baccarat on Stake for you, following the rules you set. When you set steps and amounts in the bet table, the screen tells you first how many steps your capital covers.