The 5% baccarat banker commission: how much does it really take?

2026-09-26

When you bet on the banker and win, 5% of the winnings is taken. Bet 10, win, and you get 9.5 rather than 10. It looks small on one hand, but as hands add up this 5% becomes the number that decides the result. We used real data from Evolution live baccarat at the Stake (stake.com) casino to work out where the commission takes its share and how much.

On one hand

Leaving ties aside, the banker wins 50.68 to 50.85% of the time (50.68% on clean shoes only, the same as the theoretical value). Bet 1 and a win pays 0.95 while a loss costs 1. On average that is between -0.84% and -1.15% per hand. Without the commission it would be around +1.4%. The commission flips it.

Over one shoe

A shoe holds a little over 60 hands once ties are taken out, and the banker wins about 31 of them. Bet 1 on the banker every hand and the commission alone takes a bit over 1.5. That is more than the banker's small edge gives back, so betting a whole shoe leaves an average of -0.5 to -0.7.

At deep martingale steps

In a martingale, where you double after each loss, the commission hurts more. A banker win returns only 95% of the stake, so at some step winning no longer recovers what the earlier steps lost.

Step   Stake   Lost before   Banker win
1      1       0             +0.95
3      4       3             +0.80
5      16      15            +0.20
6      32      31            -0.60
7      64      63            -2.20

From step 6 on, a banker win still leaves you down. A player win leaves +1 at any step. If your bet table goes this deep on the banker, know where this line is before you use it.

Are no-commission tables different?

Some tables take no commission and instead pay half when the banker wins with a 6. The shape changes, but the banker's disadvantage stays about the same. Check a table's payout rule before trusting its name.

Summary

One hand (banker 1)        average -0.84% to -1.15%
One shoe (banker 1 each)   commission about 1.5, average -0.5 to -0.7
Martingale banker win      a loss from step 6

Hiddenpick is a Windows program that runs Evolution live baccarat on Stake (stake.com) for you, following the rules you set. How steps and capital fit together once commission is counted is in how much capital for how many martingale steps.