Baccarat prediction Excel sheet: what hit rate do common rules get on real shoes?

2026-10-17

Open Excel and write past results down column A, one row per hand, as B or P. The next column uses a formula to pick the side for the next hand, and the one after that marks 1 or 0 for a hit.

Most sheets shared as a baccarat prediction Excel file follow this three column layout. We took six rules that often appear in those sheets and ran them as they are on 38,456 clean shoes we collected (September 9 to October 13, 2026, about 2.57 million hands).

1.Six rules that often go into a prediction sheet

Column A holds results with ties removed. A tie returns the bet, so it is neither a hit nor a miss.

• Always Banker: always "B"
• Follow last: =A2
• Against last: =IF(A2="B","P","B")
• Majority of 6: =IF(COUNTIF(A2:A7,"B")>3,"B",IF(COUNTIF(A2:A7,"B")<3,"P",""))
• Against after 3 in a row: =IF(AND(A2=A3,A3=A4),IF(A4="B","P","B"),"")
• Follow after 3 in a row: =IF(AND(A2=A3,A3=A4),A4,"")

Blank (""): no bet on that hand. Majority is blank at 3 to 3, the 3 in a row rules without three in a row.

These are general rules seen in Excel tutorials and community sheets. They are not the method of any particular program.

2.Hit rate and profit on real shoes

Each shoe was counted from the start. Results from the previous shoe were not carried into the first hands of the next one.

The six rules landed between 49.97% and 50.68%. The highest was simply picking Banker every time, at 50.68%.

• Always Banker: 2.33 million bets, 50.68%
• Follow last: 2.29 million bets, 50.02%
• Against last: 2.29 million bets, 49.98%
• Majority of 6: 1.45 million bets, 50.10%
• Against after 3 in a row: 0.55 million bets, 49.97%
• Follow after 3 in a row: 0.55 million bets, 50.03%

Follow and against splitting into 50.02% and 49.98% is expected. They pick opposite sides on the same hands, so the two add up to 100%.

There is one reason always Banker is slightly higher. Banker won 50.68% of non-tie hands in the clean shoes to begin with, so a rule that picks Banker more often moves closer to that number.

Hits and money are counted separately. A Banker hit pays 0.95 after the 5% commission, and a Player hit pays 1.

So add one more column D for profit.

• Profit: =IF(B3="","",IF(B3=A3,IF(B3="B",0.95,1),-1))

Counting 100 bets of 1 unit each, all six rules came out negative. Always Banker -1.18 units, follow the last -1.24, against the last -1.29, majority of 6 -1.11, against after 3 in a row -1.28, follow after 3 in a row -1.25.

Changing the rule barely moved the 1.1 to 1.3 units lost per 100 bets. How often runs and chops continue by length is counted separately in baccarat pattern flow.

3.The illusion of testing on one shoe

A sheet is usually tested on the shoe that was just played. So we also scored each shoe on its own.

Even the always Banker sheet hit 55% or more in one shoe out of four (25.4%). 7.7% of shoes reached 60% or more, and the best shoe hit 74.6%.

On the other side, 19.3% of shoes fell to 45% or lower, and the worst was 22.6%. Following the last result reached 60% or more in 6.5% of shoes, and majority of 6 in 10.1%.

For all three rules, a shoe hitting 60% or more came up about once in ten shoes. Even if a sheet is picked on such a shoe, the overall hit rate gathers near 50% as more shoes are added. How much hit rates swing over a small number of hands is covered in baccarat AI prediction accuracy.

4.Doing the same calculation in Excel

1. Delete the ties from the record and keep only B and P in column A.

2. Put one of the formulas above in column B and fill it down.

3. Column C hit: =IF(B3="","",IF(B3=A3,1,0))

4. Column D profit: use the formula from section 2.

5. Hit rate =AVERAGE(C3:C2000), total profit =SUM(D3:D2000)

AVERAGE skips the blank hands, so the rate comes only from hands that were bet. Where one shoe ends and the next begins, break the formulas so they do not read the previous shoe.

The number after joining many shoes into thousands of hands is closer to the sheet's real record.

5.One line conclusion

Six common Excel rules checked against 38,456 real shoes all hit close to 50%, and each lost 1.1 to 1.3 units per 100 bets.

Hiddenpick is a Windows program that keeps on its server the betting rules that pick owners do not make public, and runs them as they are on the PC of the person who received them through a referral code. It currently runs on Evolution live baccarat at Stake (stake.com). How to check the numbers prediction programs advertise against real shoes is in the baccarat prediction guide.

We are recruiting national pickster representatives, and those selected receive benefits worth $12,000, a one-year pass. Apply: https://hiddenpick.my/pickster