Baccarat win rate 51.0% and +766.1 units, the calculation chain from one week of 6,815 real member hands to money and return

2026-10-29

1.How many hands, and how many were won?

6,815 hands, 51.0% won, +766.1 units. Five members were active, and the longest stretch anyone kept going without losing a whole betting cycle lasted 50.8 hours.

Window: October 20 to 27, Korea time, from bets actually placed by members. One unit equals that member's first bet, and ties are left out of the win rate. Reading taken October 27 at 06:10.

For comparison, the third week of October closed at 6,095 hands, 51.1% and +876.8 units, and the last 30 days stand at 11,974 hands, 51.1% and +1,281.3 units. One week and thirty days land within 0.1 point of each other on win rate.

2.How does 51.0% turn into +766.1 units?

With the same stake on every hand, it cannot. Take 1,000 hands with no ties at 51.0%: that is 510 won, 490 lost, and even on the commission-free player side the most you can book is +20 units (calculated).

Unit: profit measured in the member's first bet. It lets records with different bet sizes be added up.

• Won and lost: 1,000 tie-free hands at 51.0% is 510 won, 490 lost
• Flat on player: 510 − 490 = +20 units
• Flat on banker: 5% commission per win, so 510 × 0.95 − 490 = −5.5 units
• The record: +112.4 units per 1,000 hands, ties included (766.1 ÷ 6,815 × 1,000)

Identical win rate, more than five times the units. 112.4 over 20 is 5.6, and because the record row is divided by a hand count that still holds ties, stripping them out widens the gap further.

Where does the extra come from? From stakes that were not the same on every hand. Across long stretches, more money sat on the hands that won than on the hands that lost.

The reverse happened in the same week.

Geobukseon won 51.3% of its hands, above the weekly average, and still closed 292 hands at −107.2 units. There, the bigger stakes sat on the losing hands.

!Winning over half the hands and ending in profit are two different claims. Read the stake per hand too.

The banker commission takes its share as well. Every banker win gives back 0.05 units, so a hundred banker wins hand over 5 units, and while the rate hovers around 51% that is not a rounding error.

Ties never enter the rate. In the longest run, 2,308 of 2,574 hands produced a winner and the remaining 266 were ties, 10.3% (calculated). Divide 1,204 wins by 2,308 and you get that run's 52.2%.

Roughly one hand in ten is invisible to the win rate. Those stakes are simply returned, so the unit total ignores them too.

3.How did the picks split the units?

Mr. Perfect +749.2 units, Members' own patterns +115.0, Tesla +9.0, Geobukseon −107.2. In the same order, the hand counts were 4,232, 2,271, 20 and 292, played by 4, 2, 1 and 1 members.

Mr. Perfect accounted for 62.1% of the hands and 97.8% of the units (calculated). Own patterns are hands placed with no pick at all, on settings a member chose inside the program, and Tesla's 61.1% rests on 20 hands, too few to line up against the rest.

4.Where does a return of +319.4% come from?

From the single longest run: Member B on Mr. Perfect, 65.9 hours and 2,574 hands, finishing +1,092.4 units ahead.

Return: profit in a stretch divided by the balance at its start. Its denominator is the balance, not the bet.

Units and the opening balance set the return together. These are the three best unbroken runs across the last 30 days, October 15 to 27.

• Mr. Perfect, Member B: 10/19 15:02 to 10/22 08:55, 65.9 h, 2,574 hands, +1,092.4 units, return +319.4%
• Seoul, Member B: 10/15 20:34 to 10/16 05:58, 9.4 h, 1,024 hands, +442.6 units, return +116.9%
• Own patterns, Member B: 10/17 20:02 to 10/18 04:25, 8.4 h, 357 hands, +276.2 units, return +217.3%

5.What are the units worth in dollars?

Multiply the units by the member's first bet. Assume a first bet of $1 and the weekly +766.1 units reads as +766.1 dollars, while Geobukseon's −107.2 units reads as −107.2 dollars (calculated).

Nothing else enters that step.

The multiplication does not stop at the profit line. When the stake varies from hand to hand, some hands carried several times the first bet, and the swings on those hands scale by the same factor.

Every ten minutes the real results page recomputes these figures, so its trailing digits may drift from the 06:10 reading used here. The banker commission and other base odds are laid out in the how to win at baccarat guide.

What happened before does not promise what comes next. 18+ · stake only money you can afford to lose, and if control feels hard, reach the gambling help line run by the regulator where you live.

Hiddenpick is a Windows program that keeps on its server the betting rules that pick owners do not make public, and runs them as they are on the PC of the person who received them through a referral code. It currently runs on Evolution live baccarat at Stake (stake.com). Hands, win rate and units for each pick are on the real results page.

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