Martingale vs Paroli vs flat betting: three baccarat staking plans side by side

2026-09-25

Staking plans go by many names, but they come from three roots: flat betting, which always bets the same amount; the martingale, which raises after a loss; and the Paroli, which raises after a win. They decide how much you bet, separately from what you bet on. Here they are side by side on the same terms, for Evolution live baccarat on Stake (stake.com).

Flat: always the same amount

You bet the same amount every hand. It is the simplest plan and the result shows your hit rate directly. Win and you get 1, lose and you lose 1. A losing streak never makes a single hand expensive, so your bankroll moves slowly. It also has no way to win back a streak.

Martingale: double after a loss

After a loss you double the next bet, and after a win you go back to the first amount. Whichever step you win on, you recover the earlier losses and end up one first bet ahead. That is why it seems to win on most days.

The price is the losing streak. Lose every step you planned for and you lose everything you put in at once. Six steps is 63 times the first bet. Small gains often, a big loss now and then.

Paroli: double after a win

The martingale turned upside down. After a win you let the winnings ride and bet double, and after the planned number of wins in a row you go back to the start. After a loss you go straight back to the first amount.

A losing hand only ever costs the first amount. A run of wins pays well, and when the run breaks you give back what that run made. Big losses are rare, and so are big wins.

The three side by side

             After a loss     After a win      Shape
Flat         same             same             the result shows as it is
Martingale   double           back to start    small gains often, big loss rarely
Paroli       back to start    double           small losses often, big win rarely

What they share

None of them changes the odds of a single hand. How you move the bet changes the shape of the results, not the long-run average, and it cannot turn that average positive. If you bet on the banker, the 5% commission applies the same way under every plan.

So a staking plan is chosen by which shape you can live with, not by which one wins. If you can take one big loss, the martingale. If you can take frequent small losses, the Paroli. If you want neither, flat.

Hiddenpick is a Windows program that runs Evolution live baccarat on Stake (stake.com) for you, following the rules you set. All three plans can be set in the bet table. How capital and steps fit together is in how much capital for how many martingale steps.