Blackjack split, the difference in expected value between splitting and not splitting, and the cells that change without double after split, calculated for 8 decks
2026-11-08
-50.7%. That is the expected value of hitting a pair of 8s against a dealer 9 without splitting. With a blackjack split into two hands, it becomes -40.5%.
Both numbers lose, but splitting loses 10.2 points less per unit of bet. We calculated splitting and not splitting for each pair with 8 decks and the dealer standing on soft 17, and counted the cells that change at tables that do not allow doubling after a split.
1.What a blackjack split is and what Evolution's rule sheet says
Split: matching first two cards become two hands, each with its own bet equal to the first one.
The original rule sheet for Evolution's Infinite Blackjack sets the split rules like this (rule sheet posted by Loto-Québec).
- Hands that can split: the first two cards have the same value (a K and a Q are both worth 10)
- Number of splits: once per hand, no resplitting
- Split aces: one card to each hand and no more
- Double after split: not allowed
- A and 10 on a split hand: counted as 21, not as a blackjack
The same sheet says the dealer does not check the hole card when the upcard is a 10. What happens to split money depends on when a dealer blackjack is checked, so this calculation covers upcards 2 to 9 only.
We could not find the operator's original rule sheet for the 7-seat tables. One review site says the 7-seat tables also have no double after split. So the first thing to open at a table is its rules panel, to see whether a split hand may double.
2.Blackjack split expected value, calculated pair by pair
The shoe starts as 416 cards (8 decks). Taking out the pair and the dealer upcard, every way the remaining cards can fall was counted to the end. A split value adds both hands, with the first bet set to 1.
Some shortcuts are assumed. Each split hand draws from the same leftover shoe (what one hand takes is not removed for the other), and there are no resplits and no Six Card Charlie. As a check, the same code returns +67.9% for doubling 11 vs 6, the figure from our earlier double down post.
8,8 and A,A, always split
8,8 is a total of 16. Standing against a dealer 6 is -15.7%, and splitting lifts it to +32.7%. Starting again from a single 8 opens the way to 18 with a ten-value card.
Against a dealer 9 all three choices lose. Stand is -54.0%, hit -50.7%, split -40.5%. In a cell with no winning path, the calculation picks the path that loses less.
Played as a soft 12, A,A against a dealer 6 is worth +18.8% at best. Split, it becomes +67.9% even though each hand gets only one card. Against a dealer 9, -0.02% turns into +23.5%.
10,10, never split
20 is already a strong hand. Against a dealer 6, standing is +70.3% and splitting +56.9%, throwing away 13.4 points. Against a dealer 8, +79.1% drops to +39.1%, about half.
Splitting 10,10 doubles the stake and lowers the expected value.
9,9, stand only against a 7
9,9 is 18. Against a dealer 7, standing at +40.0% beats splitting at +36.9%. A dealer 7 often ends on 17, and 18 beats it.
Against a dealer 8 it reverses. Stand is +10.1% and split +21.3%, so the pair is split.
3.Seven cells that change without double after split
After a split, a hand of 10 or 11 is where a double pays. When that path is closed, splitting small pairs is worth less.
4,4 against a dealer 5 changes the most. Hitting without a split is +8.0%, splitting with double after split +10.0%, and splitting without it -1.1%.
2,2 vs 3 is hit -8.2%, split with double after split -1.9%, split without it -9.6%. 6,6 vs 2 also turns between hit at -25.3% and the two splits at -20.9% and -27.5%.
In short, 2,2 and 3,3 against a dealer 2 or 3, 4,4 against 5 or 6, and 6,6 against 2 switch from split to hit. Cells with a big gap, such as 8,8 vs 6, are still split without double after split (+23.0%).
The chart in the blackjack basic strategy guide assumes double after split. At tables that do not allow it, such as Infinite Blackjack, read these seven cells as hit.
4.A split puts more money on the table
A split adds the same amount again, so that round carries twice the original bet. Where doubling after a split is allowed and both hands double, it goes up to four times.
Anyone betting by a ladder of step amounts should count that extra money when deciding how much balance a step needs. Correct splits do not remove the casino's margin either: the stated return is 99.29% for 7-seat tables and 99.47% for Infinite Blackjack.
5.In one line
Split A,A and 8,8, keep 10,10, and for the other pairs check whether the table allows doubling after a split before choosing the chart.
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All ten pair rows sit together in the pair table of the blackjack basic strategy guide.
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